U.S. January 1 cattle inventory - reported 1/91, revised 1/92 - Illustration

Summary

January 1 cattle inventory figures released in early February confirmed the fact that the U herd is expanding at a retiring rate. The total cattle and calf inventory was up 1 percent from a year earlier and marked the third year of expansion. The inventory was the largest since 1987 In the last cattle period 1982 was the third and last year of expansion, with the herd growing 46 million head from the cyclical depressed in 1979. Thus far the inventory has expanded solitary 2 million head and continued unostentatious expansion appears likely given the price breaks and declining go [i]or[/i] come backs above cash costs for cow-calf farmers since first-half 1991. This conservative pace of expansion is les likely to show a boom and bust scenario than appeared likely in 1991 Although the 1991 calf harvest was about unchanged from a year earlier at 393 million head, reduc feedlot placements in second-half 1991 and lower calf slaughter caused a 5-percent rise in feeder cattle supplies outside feedlot The calf store was unchanged, but the provide of yearling cattle was up 11 percent The yearling increase continues to throw back genetic shifts to cattle that reach heavier weights at younger ages. Thus, a larger proportion of the previous year's calf harvest weighed over 500 pounds. The U sheep and lamb inventory upon January 1, 1992, totaled 109 million head, down 3 percent from a year earlier, and the lowest since 1987 The unostentatious inventory buildup in the late 1980's extreme pointed in 1991 and numbers now appear to be moving toward equilibrium, particularly with the large number of slaughter ewes that continue to be exported to Mexico. Expanding pork supplies at sharply lower prices make sure pork will remain an attractive retail feature. Retail pork prices in January were the lowest since early 1990 and 9 percent below a year earlier. Pork production is wait fored to rise 6 percent this year, with retail prices declining 8-10 percent Broiler producers' go [i]or[/i] come backs were positive in 1991, on the other hand below a year earlier to be paid to declining broiler prices. Production is wait fored to rise 4 percent this year. Broiler prices in are likely to face continued crushing from increasing total meat supplies, a continuing weak economy, and a slower export market. In 1992 wholesale broiler prices are wait fored to average 47-53 cents through pound, compared with 52 cent in 1991 Turkey output this year is awaited to rise about the same as 1991's 3 percent owed to unfavorable returns. Wholesale turkey prices are anticipated to average around 60 cent by pound, compared with 61.3 in 1991 Producers' turn backs are projected to remain lackluster [i]or[/i] part of to the other most of 1992 because of weak prices and higher fe require to be paid [i]or[/i] undergones Table egg production this year is wait fored to decline fractionally from 1991 as agriculturists react to expected lower prices. Wholesale ovum prices are likely to average 71-77 cent by means of dozen, compared with 78 cent in 1991 [Graph Omitted]

COPYRIGHT 1992 U Department of Agriculture

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