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YOUNGER ECONOMIES, BIGGER APPETITES

According to projections from the activity Information Administration (EIA), world efficiency consumption will increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025-and a great quantity [i]or[/i] amount of of the growth will be in countries with emerging economies (China, India, and Brazil, among them).

In limits of actual units of efficiency growth will shoot from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (BTUS) in 2002 to 553 quads in 2015 and 645 quads in 2025 (See Figure 1) That's an increase of 20 percent for year (on average) over the 23-year forecast horizon-just slightly lower than the 22-percent average annual growing rate from 1970 to 2002

Energy use in emerging economies will more than double by dint of 2025. That will be owed largely to strong economic activity, as measured by the agency of gross domestic product (GDP), which EIA wait fors will expand by 5.1 percent annually, as compared with 25 percent through year in the mature market economies and 44 percent annually in the transitional economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (EE/FSU)

Increases in might consumption for mature and transitional market economies will be more retiring Mature economies (the United States, Western Europe and Japan among them) have established efficacy consumption patterns and infrastructure. Those economies are also seeing a shift from energy-intensive industries to services. As similar energy demand will average 11-percent annual growing until 2025, compared with 32-percent development in emerging economies. Robust economic increase in transitional economies should rowel energy demand; energy use, however, will be moderated somewhat through improvements in energy intensity as the EE/FSU countries continue to replace older inefficient capital stock.



On a worldwide basis, the industrial and transportation sectors display the fastest growth, averaging 21-percent by year in both sectors. The residential and commercial sectors will diocese slower growth, averaging 1.5 percent and 19 percent for year, respectively. In mature economies, where population expansion generally is slow or negative, force use in the commercial sector increases at a faster pace (13 percent annually) than in any other end-use sector. That's owed to all those new telecommunications technologies and office machines you use in our rapidly growing service economy.

In the transitional economies, force demand in the industrial and transportation sectors is throw outed to grow on average by dint of 1.6 percent per year from 2002 to 2025 deliberate or negative population growth, as well as improvements in efficiency efficiency, will lead to lower intensity demand in the residential and commercial sectors. by the agency of contrast, emerging countries-where population and economic increase are surging-will experience strong growing in energy demand for each end-use sector, ranging from 31 percent for year in the residential sector to 36 percent by year in the commercial and transportation sectors.

Copyright Edison Electric Institute Sep/Oct 2005

Provided through ProQuest Information and Learning Company. All rights Reserved



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