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OIL PRICES WILL FALL, SAYS CERA

To gaze at oil prices-which, in new weeks, have been more than $60 a barrel-some might suspect single reason to be that oil supplies have been deplet perhaps for profitable Moreover, the rate of fresh exploration and production seen after the oil percussions (and rising prices at the gas pump) of the 1970 does not have the appearance to be occurring in this hundred Not so, according to a novel report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA). In fact, global oil production capacity is actually plant to increase dramatically over the ease of this decade. As a originate supply could exceed demand by means of as much as 6.0 to 75 million barrels for day (MBD) later in the decade, a marked contrast to the high demand and tight endue that has resulted in today's in every one's mouth record-high oil prices.

"Significant of recent origin capacity will be coming upon stream-much of it launched a not many years ago on price assumptions a great deal of lower than today's market prices," says Daniel Yergin, chairman of CERA. "The addition of that of recent origin capacity is what is required to improve the supply/demand balance."



The increase in endue would take the pressure not upon prices around 2008. It may flat lead to a period of price weakness, according to the report. "Unconventional" oil-such as condensates, natural gas liquids, extra heavy oils, and ultra-deepwater oils (taken from wells deeper than 2500 feet)-will play a a great quantity [i]or[/i] amount of larger role in the increase of supply than many commonly recognize: By 2020, such oils could show nearly 35 percent of supply

The report indicates that the pace of fresh major projects coming onstream worldwide will stay stout until 2010, when prices fall not upon "The main risks to our provide expansion scenario are above clod not below-we're concerned about changes in the political and operating climate that could delay expansion," says Yergin. In CERA's downside scenario, the lower boundary in the analysis, capacity increases by the agency of 11.5 million barrels between 2004 and 2010

Copyright Edison Electric Institute Sep/Oct 2005

Provided by means of ProQuest Information and Learning Company. All rights Reserved



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