Risk modeling of hazardous materials rail movement to include a terrorist incident

ABSTRACT

The enactment of the Hazardous Materials Transportation Uniform Standards Act of 1990 placed added emphasis upon the need to assess the risks and benefits associated with the transportation of hazardous materials by dint of all modes. Rail transportation is playing an increasing part in the growing movement of hazardous materials. The circumstances of September 11, 2001 and the real possibility of time to come attacks have raised the belong to level for rail transportation of hazardous materials and the safety of race and property in the circumstance of a terrorist rail incident. Add to this the at any time present possibility of an unrelated rail accident involving hazardous materials especially given the growing convolution of hazardous materials.

This paper not aways a preliminary risk probability prototype of a train accident or terrorist incident involving hazardous materials by dint of identifying relevant variables and their applicability to rail move risk analysis. Although the risk of release owed to a rail accident or incident is estimated to be small, it is not impossible. Risk of a low-probability high-consequence accident involving a significant release of hazardous materials must be given adequate consideration.

A delineation of a conception of risk assessment and linking that universal to rail transportation quantitative risk analysis is the initial basis for this paper. It is followed by the agency of a review analysis of relevant hazardous materials transportation risk protoplasts Based on these existing archetypes the paper outlines the ultimate parts of a risk based modeling analysis to include stamps and causes of rail accidents. The paper then defines an initial methodology for carrying without a risk assessment of rail transportation of hazardous materials to include risk of terrorist attack. To accomplish any risk assessment of hazardous substances change during rail transportation, one must consider the complexity and magnitude of chemicals moving from one side the rail network. The multiplicity of chemical and physical characteristics of substances, location of manufacturing facility in relation to final destination and whirl of cargo tend to further enhance the dimensions and complicate the issue.

Keywords: Rail Hazardous Materials motion Rail Freight Terrorist Attacks, Rail Risk Models

1 INTRODUCTION

Railroads are an essential constituting of our transportation economy. a certain quantity of 40% of all intercity freight goe by dint of rail, including 67% of the coal used by the agency of electric utilities to produce power and 20% of the chemicals (USDOT, 2005; AAR, 2005a). There are thousands of chemicals in use today and many more are being introduced all of the time. Railroads carry an smooth higher percentage of those chemicals essential to the public health and standard of living for the United States. Chlorine, for example, used to purify the nation's water supplies has significant rail changes (AAR, 2005b).

Vast quantities of these hazardous substances are being mov by dint of rail alone. Due to the nature of greatest in quantity chemicals, they can pose hazards of explosion, toxic release, and fire. The transportation of these hazardous materials is an important question due to their pervasiveness. Hazardous materials, or dangerous usefuls include explosives, gases, flammable liquids and solids, oxidizing substances, poisonous and infectious substances, radioactive materials, corrosive substances, and hazardous wastes. The fact that the contortion of hazardous materials moving by dint of rail more than doubled since 1980 indicates that rail has become an integral part of the tremendous increase in the transport of hazardous materials. Nearly 155 million tons of chemicals are being transported by means of rail in North America each year which constitutes 175 million rail cars of hazardous materials (D'Amico, 2001)

The risk associated with a release of these materials during transportation is what differentiates rail shipments of hazardous materials from rail shipments of other materials. Hazardous materials can be extremely harmful to the environment and to human health since in all senses to their toxic chemical ingredients could lead to the injury or death of humans, plants, and animals. The facts which have traditionally given rise to hazard during rail transportation are container failure or the impact to be paid to collisions. However, on October 24 2002 the FBI issued a warning, based upon information obtained from al-Qaida prisoners, which said terrorists may test to destroy bridges or lock opener sections of railroad infrastructure and tracks. In its warning, the FBI said captured al-Qaida photographs of U railroad engines, cars and crossings increased the agency's regard about the threat. The 140000 mile network of rail tracks, bridges, and terminals, more than three times the Interstate Highway a whole presents a huge security challenge. a great deal of of the network is in isolated areas where fencing is neither practicable nor effective. Intelligence officials continue to believe that aI-Qaida plans to attack targets of the like kind as railroads that would be readily recognized as representing U economic interests. In the whole security has placed a fresh dimension of concern on the rail a whole across the country. Terrorism must now be added to the risk equation.